Deportation Economy's Hidden Toll on American Workers
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The Deportation Economy’s Hidden Toll
The recent jobs report has left economists puzzled by a loss of 23,000 positions despite a decline in unemployment. Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, attributes this anomaly to the deportation economy’s impact on American workers.
Swonk points out that healthcare and social assistance sectors, driven traditionally by immigrant labor, are struggling with a significant shortage. In 2022, nearly a third of direct care workers in the US were immigrants, a number that has grown since 2011. This is not limited to these industries; construction, hospitality, and nursing homes also rely heavily on foreign-born workers.
The deportation economy causes two interrelated problems. Firstly, it creates labor shortages in critical sectors, particularly as the aging population grows and demands for care services increase. According to PHI, there will be nearly a million new positions to fill over the next decade – jobs held by many of the 200,000 people whose temporary protected status (TPS) was terminated at the end of July.
Secondly, the loss of immigrant workers is forcing native-born workers to take on unpaid care responsibilities. Family caregivers already provide an estimated $1 trillion worth of unpaid care annually. Swonk warns that this trend is accelerating and broadening, noting that unpaid eldercare has increased “quite dramatically” across all professions.
The hidden toll of the deportation economy extends beyond economics; it also affects demographics. The labor force is shrinking not because Americans are simply replacing deported workers but because they’re staying home to provide care themselves. As a result, many aren’t even registering as unemployed – hence the lower unemployment number.
Research by economists Chloe East and Elizabeth Cox found that areas with increased immigration enforcement saw employment fall among likely undocumented immigrants and native-born workers. The damage was worst in construction, where employment among US-born men with a high school degree or less fell 3%. Immigrants make up a significant portion of the construction workforce (26.3%), and their departure is having a ripple effect throughout regional economies.
The deportation economy disrupts the complex relationships between industries, demographics, and economic systems. This isn’t just about filling job openings; it’s about the delicate balance of these ecosystems. Swonk warns that the timing couldn’t be worse, given the labor shock colliding with state-level cuts to Medicaid, the largest payer for long-term care.
The future looks grim: rationing and unpaid care at home are likely outcomes, placing an unbearable burden on native-born workers. It’s time to rethink this deportation economy and its hidden toll on American workers.
The deportation economy is not just an economic issue; it’s also a social one. Foreign-born and native-born workers complement each other rather than purely substituting for one another. Their departure affects regional economies in complex ways, with far-reaching consequences for employment, demographics, and community development.
Historically, the deportation economy has been building for years, with the Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration enforcement creating a ripple effect throughout the labor market. Economists have long warned of the dangers of this approach; now the data is speaking for itself.
As the deportation economy continues to unfold, it will be essential to track its impact on regional economies, employment rates, and community development. The consequences of this policy are already being felt; it’s time to address them head-on.
Reader Views
- RJReporter J. Avery · staff reporter
This analysis raises important questions about the economic and demographic implications of the deportation economy, but we should also consider the social contract between employers and workers in these critical sectors. If immigrant labor is being systematically removed, are American employers doing enough to invest in their own domestic workforce? Without incentives or training programs, it's unlikely that native-born workers will step up to fill the gap, leaving us with a vicious cycle of understaffing and burnout.
- CSCorrespondent S. Tan · field correspondent
The deportation economy's impact on American workers is far more complex than just numbers on a jobs report. While economists like Diane Swonk shed light on labor shortages and unpaid care responsibilities, we must consider the ripple effect on small businesses and rural communities that rely heavily on immigrant workers. For instance, in areas where migrant labor is scarce, local economies are struggling to fill not only jobs but also seats at community tables – a scenario that threatens to further erode social cohesion.
- ADAnalyst D. Park · policy analyst
The deportation economy's impact on American workers is a ticking time bomb. While economists like Diane Swonk correctly identify labor shortages and unpaid care responsibilities as key consequences, they overlook the most insidious effect: erosion of social safety nets. As native-born workers shoulder more caregiving duties, they're increasingly leaving the workforce altogether, reducing their tax contributions and further straining already underfunded public programs. We'd do well to consider this ripple effect when advocating for immigration reform – it's not just about filling job openings, but preserving the fabric of our social contract.